Whatever the outcome, she will have 4 years to refine her image, learn the lessons which need learning and if she chooses will be a force to be reckoned with.

For Conservatives, Sarah Palin is (pardon the crass comment) a wet dream. She is attractive and a rock ribbed conservative. She connects with Conservative leaning women in the same way Hillary Clinton connects with Liberal women. She seems (still being defined in September 2008) intelligent and can at the very least deliver a good speech.

For Liberals, Sarah Palin is a nightmare. Liberals (and the current President) have done a wonderful job of painting Republicans as out of touch old, white, and stupid. Regardless of the fact that the left vs right politics have changed little in the last 40 years, Liberals in 2008 have been able to paint their policies as change. Much of this is a credit to the meteoric rise of Barack Obama. A good deal of credit also goes to the way progressive activists have used technology to connect with and motivate a young base of voters. Much as JFK in the 1960’s and Ronald Reagan did in the early 1980’s, Barack Obama has created a ‘movement’ which plays very well even with genX and boomers who are perpetually ‘young’ at heart.

And Republicans countered this historic phenomenon by trotting out the most predictable group of white guys to conduct a long and somewhat dreary nomination process. Emerging from the primaries was the epitome of yesterday’s politics in John McCain. A hero of the ware we lost, McCain was finally handed the nomination that should have come 20 years ago when he was young, vibrant, and full of new ideas. Nostalgia is great, and John McCain has been an honorable servant his whole life, but against Obama, he seemed more fitting of a statue than the Presidency.

Enter Sarah Palin. In a world obsessed with first impressions, instant heroes, and sound bite logic, Ms Palin shattered the status quo.

The threat for Liberals is that if Sarah Palin is for real, she represents the same dynamic that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have come to define: the changing face of American politics. Going back just a few short weeks ago, it was easy to imagine an Obama landslide that shifted the center/right politics of this country for an entire generation. Conservatives and so called ‘Reagan Democrats’ have grown weary of a Republican party that has become predictable, out of touch, and incompetent. A McCain/Romney or name-your-rich-white-guy running mate would have ended in a certain victory for Democrats.

But Palin changed all of that. And at age 44, could very well be a player for quite some time.

With the economy in its current condition, the next President will face an uphill battle to maintain any level of political popularity. If McCain is defeated in 2008, Palin (unless significantly discredited or discouraged) will be a front runner in 2012. If McCain wins in 2008, he will be 76 years old in 2012 and there will be pressure to let his young, vibrant VP move up.

So what you see now is an effort to simultaneously launch and destroy a political career. Republicans realize that they must show Palin to be credible and keep the blossom on the rose. Democrats must minimalize her or risk a political juggernaut that could be hard to battle.

As an avowed Libertarian, I find all this fascinating. While I’ll support McCain this year (believe it or not, I liked the guy when he ran in 2000 and was the scourge of the right wing) I’m not sure about Palin. I’m not afraid of her views (not yet sold on the fact that she speaks in tongues or advocates that for anyone else) but I’m also not yet convinced she is up for the job. If she is no more than Dan Quayle in pumps, better to know that now. But, if she’s for real and up for the fight, this could be interesting!